Yet more game playing by Russia’s President Putin with the announcement of an Easter truce – followed by yet another drone attack on Kyiv. No doubt he is trying to outmaneuver Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in front of Trump – make him appear unreasonable and give Trump the pretext he needs to then to pull all US support for Ukraine.
It’s worth highlighting here that there have been more than 28 “ceasefires” since Russian troops first crossed Ukraine’s borders back in 2014 and Russia never abided by any of them including most recently during the battle for Bakhmut.
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We saw Putin play the truce/ceasefire game around the various Minsk negotiations and again he never honored any of them.
It’s likely no coincidence that Putin’s latest move comes as Trump has threatened to walk away from peace talks if the sides don’t appear serious.
I am just debating if all of this is being coordinated between the Trump and Putin teams to make Ukraine look bad, leave them isolated and let Trump do what he really wants to do – ally with Putin against China et al. Trump is desperate to normalize relations with Russia and get back to business.
It is notable that in recent days we have seen Russia reveal what it sees as the basis for a permanent deal on Ukraine. And this is:
- Russia gets to keep and annex all five Ukrainian territories it currently wholly or partially occupies - so Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhiya and Kherson.
- No NATO membership for Ukraine.
- No foreign troops in Ukraine – aside from Russias!
- No US military support for Ukraine.
- Lifting of sanctions on Russia.
- Release Russian frozen assets.
Ukraine gets nothing but that worthless minerals deal with the US. No Western business will invest in Ukraine unless the deal provides security assurances for Ukraine. The terms of the agreement give Ukraine zero security, but reinforces the insecurity of knowing Russia has been rewarded for its aggression and will attack again. Without US military support Ukraine will struggle to defend itself going forward – which Putin obviously knows.
Other Topics of Interest
‘I Don’t See US Withdrawing From Peace Discussions’, NATO Chief Says After MeetingWith Trump Cabinet
“We all agree in NATO that Russia is a long-term threat to NATO territory, to the whole of the Euro-Atlantic territory,“ Rutte told reporters, adding that he “doesn’t know” ifPutin wants peace.
So, any deal based around the mineral agreement is a disaster for Ukraine, meaning no Ukrainian leader, and especially not Zelensky, will be able to accept it. It is a recipe for economic and social failure and political instability – which Putin knows full well to which Trump and his team seem oblivious or simply do not care.
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The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those ofKyiv Post.
Timothy Ash
Timothy Ash is a London-based senior emerging markets sovereign strategist for Bluebay Asset Management Company.
